OFFICIAL: BIRD FLU WORST-CASE SCENARIOS BEING EXPLORED
Monday, November 21st, 2005 -- 12:07 PM
Different experts have different opinions as to how real the risk of a human Avian Influenza pandemic is, but officials at the local level must consider the worst-case scenario.Clark County Emergency Management Director Jennifer Lord-Kouraichi recently attended a regional exercise in Wausau. Center for Disease Control projections paint a chilling picture of what could happen if the especially deadly H5N1-strain mutates and becomes easily transmittable between humans.
"If there was a type-1 influenza outbreak, between 15 and 56 Clark County residents could die and between 2,000 to 7,000 people would need to see a doctor," Lord Kouraichi says.
That presents some big dilemmas locally as Clark County?s two hospitals in Neillsville and Stanley have a total of 60 beds between them.
Another dilemma is quarantine. By statute, local health departments can order quarantines, but it?s local law enforcement?s job to enforce it.
"I went through the CDC flu projections; some of the people affected would be law enforcement, fire and EMS. How are they going to enforce a quarantine in Clark County if they're sick themselves?" Lord-Kouraichi questions, adding officials are already working on these problems.
But, while it?s somewhat mysteriously received many headlines this year, the CDC?s website says this strain of Bird Flu has been around a long time. In fact, the first human case of the disease was reported in 1997. Since 2003, there have been fewer than 200 deaths associated with the virus.
Much more likely than a human pandemic is an outbreak in America?s livestock. Some waterfowl, such as Sandhill Cranes, actually migrate to Asia. Waterfowl rarely exhibit symptoms of the Flu, but can easily transmit it to other birds. In fact, Lord-Kouraichi considers the threat to area poultry the biggest threat from H5N1. It would likely lead to a countywide quarantine of birds and pigs, a depopulation of birds that tested positive and possible vaccination of area birds.
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